"...Feb. 5 is the date of the gigantic, 21-state national primary. If Giuliani takes South Carolina and Florida in January, he'll be poised to score a huge victory that day - taking New York, California, New Jersey, Illinois and Pennsylvania. He'll be in decent shape even if he only wins one of those two January states.
Giuliani and Thompson are therefore pursuing the same approach to the nomination. Rudy is ahead - so Thompson's going to have to derail him.
He's the only one who can do it.
John McCain and Giuliani are technically rivals, but when they're on the same stage, they're practically holding hands. And it's clear from Wednesday night's GOP debate that Romney just doesn't have the chops to bring Rudy down.
Romney tried to go at Giuliani on immigration, among other things. But Romney's own not-exactly-party-line conservative record on these matters is a profound impediment when he tries to make the case.
Giuliani didn't have a great night on Wednesday - he talked far too much about his past successes as mayor and not nearly enough about what he would do in the future as president - but Romney couldn't lay a glove on him.
And Romney ought to be careful, because I think Giuliani the former courtroom barrister would make mincemeat of the one-time venture capitalist in a head-to-head battle.
That leaves Thompson. He won't get the nomination by default, he has to win it - and that will require him to go at Giuliani directly.
Which brings up the great unanswered question about Thompson. And it's not the ridiculous speculations about his supposed "laziness." The man has done more and achieved more in his 65 years - including playing a key role in sending the sitting governor of Tennessee to prison for selling pardons to felons back in 1978 - than most people could achieve in 120 years.
It's whether he is really and truly hungry for it - so hungry that he'll do what he must to secure the nomination.
I've been a Thompson watcher for nearly two decades, and spent two days with him in 1993. (I was reporting for a magazine profile that never ran.) He's exceptionally smart, amusing, interesting and impressive, and far more thoughtful about the nature of politics and conservative thought than his aw-shucks style might lead you to believe.
But there was no evidence then and there is precious little evidence since that he has a killer instinct politically. And if he doesn't exhibit one in the coming four months, he isn't going to be the Republican nominee."Fred is really the only Republican candidate saying what I want to hear, but at this point in time I don't believe he's a fighting chance to topple Romney let alone AMERICA'S MAYOR. Here in Florida, all the local talk is about Julie Annie this and Julie Annie that, and a lot of it has to do with his unparalleled speaking ability and how he'd make absolute mincemeat out of the diminutive, nails on the chalkboard, former first lady who'd be a flat-out fool to even think of debating him one on one.
And the hot rumor making the rounds features Julie asking McCain to the prom as his VP and while that would explain the not-so dry hump they've been tossing one another, it'd be a disastrous move for us, even if it did give him a leg-up on whomever Albany's favorite con-woman selects to carry her water. WE do not want a moderate liberal running the country with a crazy old man as his sidekick.
Fact: There are only so many major donors, so many movers and shakers around, and because of the early start most of them are committed or leaning towards Julie Annie or Romney, so that leaves Fred Thompson with a grass roots effort and since this is 2007 and not 1807, thats going to hurt in pulling in the big bucks necessary for the nomination.
Fred Thompson is scheduled to appear on the Laura Ingraham show next week and...her proclivity to go a-gusher aside...this should be quite interesting. Laura is a McCain fan (simply MUST be all those old pics of Johnny in uniform), and while not the sharpest knife in the drawer does bring passion to the equation so we might get to see if Fred has any fire to toss back at her.
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